2026 Material Price Forecast
Navigating supply chain volatility in the post-inflation economy.
Marcus Thorne
Chief Product Officer
Quick Summary
Key Facts
- Energy-intensive materials remain the most volatile segment.
- Lumber has normalized versus prior peak disruptions.
- Long-duration bids need explicit escalation protections.
Decision Checklist
- Apply commodity risk assumptions by material class.
- Use escalation clauses beyond six-month project windows.
- Refresh material indexes before final bid submission.
Source context: Commodity trend analysis and contractor pricing-risk controls.
The "Energy Surcharge" Era
While raw material scarcity is over, production costs are rising due to the "Energy Surcharge." Heavy materials (Concrete, Asphalt, Brick, Glass) are incredibly energy-intensive to manufacture.
- Concrete (+5%): Cement kilns require massive heat. As EPA regulations continually force older, dirty kilns to close, supply constrains while demand from the Infrastructure Bill rises. Expect sand/aggregate shortages to be highly localized but acute.
- Copper (+12%): Bullish long-term due to "Electrification" demand (EVs, Data Centers, Grid Modernization). If you are an Electrical sub, lock in your wire pricing immediately upon Letter of Intent.
- Asphalt: Directly correlated to the price of oil (Bitumen). If oil spikes due to geopolitical tension, paving costs move instantly.
The Contract Savior: Escalation Clauses
Do not sign a Fixed Price (Lump Sum) contract for 2027 completion without an escalation mechanism. If the job is longer than 6 months, you are gambling with your profit margin.
Recommended Language: "If the material cost index (ENR BCI) increases by more than 5% between bid date and installation date, the contract sum shall be adjusted accordingly. Conversely, if it drops by 5%, the owner receives a credit."
This "Shared Risk" model is becoming standard in AIA contracts. Owners may resist, but explain that without it, you are forced to add a "Risk Contingency" (fluff) to your bid, artificially inflating the price.
Buying Strategy: "Buy Early, Store Securely"
With interest rates stabilizing, the cost of capital to hold inventory is lower than the risk of a 10% price spike.
Best Practice: Ask for a "Stored Materials" deposit in your Schedule of Values so you can purchase long-lead items (Switchgear, Generators) immediately upon award.